Assad's death expected to have repercussions throughout Middle East.(Knight Ridder Newspapers)

Nomi Morris

The death of Syrian President Hafez Assad Saturday at the age of 69 will have wide-ranging repercussions in the Middle East, affecting not only Syria's stability but also its relations with Israel and the United States.

Shortly after Assad's death was announced, Syria's parliament changed the country's constitution to allow Assad's 34-year-old ophthalmologist son Bashar to take over within two weeks. Assad had been grooming Bashar as his successor, but while the immediate transition looks smooth, the younger Assad's hold on power is far from certain.

"There will be others waiting in the wings to challenge him," said London-based Middle East analyst Adel Darwish.

But some analysts believe Assad has laid the groundwork for Bashar to move into power.

"The transition will be smooth," said Patrick Seale, Assad's British biographer and his closest confidant in the West. "Bashar has prepared for six years and put his men in place." The pro-Syrian British biographer said Bashar will continue his father's legacy of "refusing to accept dictates from the United States and Israel."

It is unclear at this point whether Assad's successor will be as firm in peace negotiations as he was. What is clear is that it will take time for the United States and Israel to develop a relationship with his successor. If it is Assad's son Bashar, analysts say he would not dare deviate from Assad's hard-line stance, fearing the wrath of his father's powerful army.

Even if Bashar's transition to power is smooth _ which many analysts question _ Assad's death will most certainly delay any peace deal between Israel and Syria, and will thus probably deprive President Clinton of presiding over a peace ceremony before he leaves office next year.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak immediately issued a statement saying he hopes to continue the peace process with the new leadership and calling for quiet on the Israel's northern borders with Syria and Lebanon.

President Clinton, who was in Northfield, Minn., reiterated his administration's commitment to continue working with Syria for a broad Middle East peace.

"Over the past seven years I have met him many times and gotten to know him very well. We had our difference, but I always respected him," said a statement from Clinton.

"Throughout my contacts with him, including our last meeting, he made clear Syria's continued commitment to the path of peace."

In recent weeks, as reports increased about Assad's failing health, there were signs of a power struggle within Damascus. In a country where criticism of Assad was punishable by fail or worse, there accusations of corruption were increasingly being aired against high-level officials, including Assad cronies.

Currently, there are two sitting vice presidents _ Zuheir Masharqa and Abdul-Halim Khaddam _ either of whom could claim power, according to Syria's constitution. There also is a underground Islamist movement that could move to gain power, although Assad violently crushed the most powerful Islamists in 1982.

Assad even has an ambitious brother, Rifaat, who now lives in Paris. Rifaat once tried to seize control of the government while Assad was on his sick bed, but Assad recovered and forced his brother into exile.

If his son Bashar succeeds him, analysts agree he has no choice but to steer his father's course in order to consolidate power, despite being from a younger generation and the architect of Syria's much-vaunted entry into the Internet age, just this spring.

Assad, whose funeral will be held Tuesday, died of heart failure, according to a Lebanese heart specialist who refused to be named. He suffered as well from diabetes, kidney troubles and there were unconfirmed reports that he had lymphoma. Syria has declared 40 days of mourning.

"This is the end of an era, said Seale.

Assad had carried out a one-man rule for 30 years in Syria. He was also the main power broker in neighboring Lebanon.

Although often ruthless in suppressing internal opposition, Assad, whose family name means "lion," was deeply respected _ and feared _ in Syria and in the Arab world. He also was credited with bringing stability and honor to Syria. Now the world waits to see who will take Assad's place and whether there will be a bloody struggle for power in a country that has had its share of unrest in the past decades.

"It is very difficult to imagine the Middle East without President Assad," said former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, who had been in regular contact with the Syrian leader in recent years.

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Syrians learned of the news of their president Saturday evening.

A Syrian state television anchor announced, "Today, death took away from Syria a leader."

The announcer called Assad an "international champion who withstood so many difficulties and turbulences. He was our father, our brother, our friend, our leader, our teacher," he said, crying on air.

The television then switched to the Syrian parliament, which was convening in for the first day of a new session. Then the program cut to readings of the Koranic verses for the dead, which is usual practice when an Arab leader dies.

The entire broadcast was aired simultaneously on Israel's public television network.

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Assad came from Syria's Alawite minority. He took power in 1970, ending decades of coups and instability.

Assad's death occurred exactly one week before his nationalist, socialist Baath Party is due to hold its first congress in 15 years in order to promote Bashar to the post of vice president, which would have assured his succession.

Assad's eldest son, Basil, who he was grooming to take over, died in a car accident in 1994, prompting him to bring his second son Bashar home from his medical studies in England, where he reportedly developed an appreciation for western-style openness and the music of Phil Collins.

Although Assad did not live to witness Israeli troops leaving the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967, he did see Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon on May 24 after a two-decade occupation.

Analysts also are watching to see what Assad's death will mean for Lebanon, where Syria has an estimated 35,000 troops and where Assad also was the pre-eminent ruler. Assad's death could lead to calls within Lebanon for independence from Syria and for the removal of Syrian troops, especially since Israel has removed its troops from the south and is seen as less of a threat.

Lebanese President Emile Lahoud said he was the last person to speak to Assad before he died.

"His last words were: `Our destiny is to build a better future for our countries..' and then there was a silence and knew something had happened," Lahoud said in a condolence letter reportedly sent to Bashar.

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Assad had kept the Lebanese border quiet, apparently in an effort to keep the door open for negotiating with Israel on the Golan Heights.

Assad has been a firm, some might say stubborn, negotiating partner in the talks, even though he had made a strategic choice to end its 52-year war with Israel. Yet he never budged from his demand that Israel withdraw from all of the Golan Heights.

"Assad did not want the political order in the Middle East dominated by Israel," Assad's biographer Patrick Seale said on CNN television. "He wanted a balance of power in order to keep the peace. He felt an imbalance causes war because the stronger partner always tries to impose his will on the weaker."

Between 1993 and 1996 a tough round of U.S.-mediated negotiations took place. They reopened last December, only to fall through in January.

Assad recently rejected Israel's offer to return most of the Golan, if it could be allowed to keep a small strip of land along the Sea of Galilee to ensure its access to water there. The Sea of Galilee provides Israel with 40 percent of its drinking water.

In late March, Clinton flew to Geneva for what turned into a failed attempt to restart the peace process.

The thin and ailing Assad was apparently expecting to hear Clinton say Israel had agreed to a full withdrawal.

When Clinton did not deliver those words, Assad made it clear he was not prepared to back down, either.

The Syrian president told Clinton that he used to fish in the Sea of Galilee and he looked forward to dipping his feet in the waters again.

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(c) 2000, Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.